The Euro gives war to the Dollar

After two days the euro consolidating positions returned to take another step forward in ...

... Define the upward trend over the last nine weeks, in a move that could not find the brake until the 1.35 area figures.

Short-term situation:

The upward trend that defines the euro against the dollar over the past two months is maintained at all existing and after passing short as potential turning points were the 1.3130 figure increases now could be extended to an area, 35 figures, whose recovery would reach 50% of the previous fall from 1.52.

However, as we have been pointing them in recent days that can be observed record nine weeks in the euro bulls warns us of the high existing overbought, which could end at any time causing a depletion buyer and the beginning of a corrective phase would serve to adjust some of the strong movement of appreciation.

For now, we are unable to detect any technical evidence that points downward in that direction and we believe there will not be worthy of note until we are able to see a weekly closing lows but lost the previous week (the last at 1.3050 ) or be able to see a bearish weekly candle line that suggests a ceiling on the climbs. The first thing has not happened for two months and the second will follow the evolution of the euro this week, especially if it reaches potential turning points such as the 1.35 figure.

Trend Situation:

The line of sailing month of July seems to speak of resurrection potential trend from an area of medium to long term as is the 1.15 / 1.25 figures. However, we can not talk of new technical evidence bullish until we are able to observe two week minimum on rising. For the latter it is necessary to correct the rise in recent weeks, that this correction does not deepen below 1.1874 and subsequently achieve the euro bulls break a weekly close the origin of this hypothetical correction. All this and appreciating what we will see in the coming weeks.

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El Euro da guerra al Dolar

Después de dos jornadas consolidando posiciones el euro volvió a dar un nuevo paso adelante dentro de ...

...la tendencia alcista que define a lo largo de las últimas nueve semanas, en un movimiento que podría no encontrar freno hasta la zona de las 1,35 figuras.

Situación de corto plazo:

La tendencia alcista que define el euro frente al dólar a lo largo de los últimos dos meses se mantiene del todo vigente y tras superar a corto puntos de giro potenciales como eran las 1,3130 figuras las subidas podrían extenderse ahora hasta la zona de 1,35 figuras, cuyo alcance supondría una recuperación del 50% de toda la caída previa desde 1,52.

Ahora bien, como les venimos señalando estos últimos días, el hecho de que se puedan observar nueve semanas de registro alcistas en el euro nos advierte de la elevada sobrecompra existente, lo cual podría acabar provocando en cualquier momento un agotamiento comprador y el comienzo de una fase correctiva que serviría para ajustar parte de este fuerte movimiento de apreciación.

De momento, somos incapaces de detectar ninguna evidencia técnica bajista que apunte hacia esa dirección y consideramos que no la habrá digna de destacar mientras no seamos capaces de ver un cierre semanal que bien pierda los mínimos de la semana anterior (los últimos en 1,3050) o bien seamos capaces de ver una línea de vela semanal bajista que sugiera un techo en las subidas. Lo primero no ha sucedido desde hace dos meses y para lo segundo habrá que seguir la evolución del euro esta semana, máxime si alcanza puntos de giro potenciales como son las 1,35 figuras.

Situación tendencial:

La línea de vela mensual de julio parece hablar de resurrección potencial en tendencia desde una zona de soporte a medio y largo plazo como es la de 1,15/1,25 figuras. Con todo, no podremos hablar de nuevas evidencias técnicas alcistas mientras no seamos capaces de observar dos mínimos relativos semanales ascendentes. Para esto último es preciso que se corrija el ascenso de las últimas semanas, que esta corrección no profundice por debajo de los 1,1874 y que posteriormente los alcistas logren que el euro rompa a cierre semanal el origen de esta hipotética corrección. Todo ello lo iremos viendo y valorando durante las próximas semanas.

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EUR / USD: Looking for clues in the weekly close

Second consecutive session in which the euro consolidates positions as ...

... Ante is likely to be a mere pause before more gains.

Short-term situation:

The upward trend that defines the euro against the dollar over the past two months is maintained at all existing and after passing short as potential turning points were the 1.3130 figure increases now could be extended to an area, 35 figures, whose recovery would reach 50% of the previous fall from 1.52.

However, as we have been pointing them in recent days, as can be seen eight weeks of registration bullish on the euro, which warns us that overbought is becoming so high that it can end up causing a stock buyer and the beginning of a corrective phase would serve to adjust some of the strong movement of appreciation.

For now, we are unable to detect any technical evidence that points downward in that direction and we believe there will not be worthy of note until we are able to see a weekly closing lows but lost last week or end in a line of bearish candle that suggests a ceiling on the climbs. The first thing has not happened for two months and see how complicated it happen this week and for the latter would require that this week the euro had just closed near the lows of it, preferably below the highs of the last-in-1 3107. In this case we would be ahead of what is known as Shooting Star, which is a potentially bearish candle.

Location trend:

The line of sailing month of July seems to speak of resurrection potential trend from an area of medium to long term as is the 1.15 / 1.25 figures. However, we can not talk of new technical evidence bullish until we are able to observe two week minimum on rising. For the latter it is necessary to correct the rise in recent weeks, that this correction does not deepen below 1.1874 and subsequently achieve the euro bulls break a weekly close the origin of this hypothetical correction. All this and appreciating what we will see in the coming weeks.

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EUR/USD: Buscando pistas en el cierre semanal

Segunda sesión consecutiva en la que el euro consolida posiciones en lo que ...

...a priori tiene visos de ser una simple pausa previa a mayores alzas.

Situación de corto plazo:

La tendencia alcista que define el euro frente al dólar a lo largo de los últimos dos meses se mantiene del todo vigente y tras superar a corto puntos de giro potenciales como eran las 1,3130 figuras las subidas podrían extenderse ahora hasta la zona de 1,35 figuras, cuyo alcance supondría una recuperación del 50% de toda la caída previa desde 1,52.

Ahora bien, como les venimos señalando estos últimos días, ya pueden observarse ocho semanas de registro alcistas en el euro, lo cual nos advierte de que la sobrecompra comienza a ser tan elevada que puede acabar provocando un agotamiento comprador y el comienzo de una fase correctiva que serviría para ajustar parte de este fuerte movimiento de apreciación.

De momento, somos incapaces de detectar ninguna evidencia técnica bajista que apunte hacia esa dirección y consideramos que no la habrá digna de destacar mientras no seamos capaces de ver un cierre semanal que bien pierda los mínimos de la semana anterior o bien acabe formando una línea de vela bajista que sugiera un techo en las subidas. Lo primero no ha sucedido desde hace dos meses y vemos muy complicado que ocurra esta semana y para lo segundo sería preciso que esta semana el euro acabara cerrando cerca de los mínimos de la misma, preferiblemente por debajo de los máximos de la pasada en 1,3107. En este caso estaríamos delante de lo que se conoce como Estrella Fugaz, que es una vela potencialmente bajista.

Situación tendencial:

La línea de vela mensual de julio parece hablar de resurrección potencial en tendencia desde una zona de soporte a medio y largo plazo como es la de 1,15/1,25 figuras. Con todo, no podremos hablar de nuevas evidencias técnicas alcistas mientras no seamos capaces de observar dos mínimos relativos semanales ascendentes. Para esto último es preciso que se corrija el ascenso de las últimas semanas, que esta corrección no profundice por debajo de los 1,1874 y que posteriormente los alcistas logren que el euro rompa a cierre semanal el origen de esta hipotética corrección. Todo ello lo iremos viendo y valorando durante las próximas semanas.

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Euro-Norwegian Krone: The Razor's Edge

Despite not making a priori expected to keep open the strategy ...

Trading Status:

Despite not making a priori expected to keep open the bullish strategy euro / Norwegian krone, although we are becoming more demanding and will not afford to lose any significant support without us to take tough decisions.

Dates back and looked back at the operational and reference were ascending stop to 7.90. Again, we have to move that stop up to 7.9370. The loss of this level would enable the transfer of the guideline bullish as you can see in the attachment, is leading the euro rises against the Norwegian kroner over the past few weeks. In fact, closing below 7.9370 would confirm peaks decreasing daily chart, which would not make much sense in a context of restructuring bullish as we wanted.

Bull Strategy Review: We keep raising the stop long to 7.9370.

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Euro-Corona Noruega: Al filo de la navaja

A pesar de que no está haciendo lo esperado a priori mantenemos abierta la estrategia ...

Situación de Trading:

A pesar de que no está haciendo lo esperado a priori mantenemos abierta la estrategia alcista euro / corona noruega, si bien cada vez somos más exigentes y no vamos a permitir que se pierda ningún soporte relevante sin que ello nos haga tomar decisiones drásticas.

Fechas atrás ya revisábamos esta operativa y elevábamos la referencia de stop a los 7,90. Pues bien, volvemos a subir ese stop hasta los 7,9370. La pérdida de este nivel habilitaría la cesión de la directriz alcista que, como pueden ver en el adjunto, viene guiando las subidas del euro frente a la corona noruega a lo largo de las últimas semanas. De hecho, cierres por debajo de los 7,9370 confirmarían crestas decrecientes en gráfico diario, lo cual no tendría mucho sentido en un contexto de reestructuración alcista como el que buscábamos.

Revisión Estrategia Alcista: Mantenemos largos elevando el stop a los 7,9370.

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The yen's upward trend may be changing course

Despite the recovery that starred the yen in yesterday's session, we can say that something has changed ...

... In the short term after watching last Tuesday, the yen lost key support references against currencies as important as the euro, the dollar and the pound sterling.

In these three currency crosses Japan has deployed around figures that suggest an upward trend might have changed sign. The question now and what we focus the following discussion on the yen is whether this change in trend may be somewhat sustainable over time or is just something temporary and more the result of overbought in the yen than a change in their expectations.

First request is granted will depend largely on the success of the current restructuring effort that is taking place upward in the Nikkei from key support area of 9,000 integers. In an environment where the yen continues to appreciate against the dollar and other currencies, the Nikkei is very unlikely to be rearranged and most likely to end up losing the support of 9,000.

The euro / yen and the pound / yen achieve long-term supports

The following attachments may see the evolution of the pound and the euro against the yen. Notice how in both crosses the downward trend of recent months has been corrected 78.60% of all the last major move higher. In the case of the pound which we speak began in the least January 2009 while the euro is to go much further back and that the uptrend has been corrected in that proportion, that we remember is the maxim theory so as not to encourage the return to the beginning of the movement, began a decade ago, namely in October 2000.

Therefore, we are talking about turning points that are of medium to long term and hence can not be ruled out, at least a priori, that figure back or upward turn signals in these areas of strong support to end up drifting in sustainable increases beyond what the short term.

Cancel this hypothesis upward rotation, or at least, should talk of a restructuring upward much more complex, where the pair euro / yen miss media that figures presented in the 110 while in the pound / yen this support appears in the 130 figures.



The dollar / yen is also a tendency to change

In the case of the dollar against the yen, the technical situation is a bit more complicated as the long-term graph does not give us significant clues that point toward the possibility of seeing a floor in the downward trend that defines the dollar against the yen this recent months. In fact, it would have been necessary to see the dollar / yen to fall below the minimum in December 2009 in 84.79, in order to reach a potential pivot point and support base would be important as the broad bearish channel we show in the accompanying graph. Moreover, this would be the target of bearish pattern which confirmed the pair dates back after losing 88 media figures.

However, one can not rule out that the dollar may appreciate against the yen and in this direction is the small pattern on Tuesday confirmed as a double floor in 86.23. While not miss this support will go along the current attempt to reorganize the upside, above all, we insist, those investors who have exposure in your portfolio in Japanese equities.

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